It’s been a big 15 months for VET. New enrolment data, a permanent shift in funding policy, tighter rules for international delivery and a new set of compliance standards have all landed in quick succession. Any one of these would be worth paying attention to. Together, they’re changing the conditions private RTOs work in.
To save you piecing it together, here’s what’s changed, what each change covers, and the dates worth putting in your calendar.
The 2025 enrolment data: government funding is pulling back fastest
NCVER’s latest Total VET Activity release recorded 2,804,190 enrolments in 2025, down 5.2%. As our NCVER 2025 analysis found, that’s the steepest annual fall in the seven-year series, and even sharper than the COVID-affected drop in 2020.
But the headline number doesn’t tell the whole story. The fall wasn’t even across funding types:
– Government-funded enrolments: down 8.0%
– Domestic fee-for-service: down 0.8%
– International fee-for-service: down 5.0%
Government funding is retreating fastest. Fee-for-service isn’t growing, but it’s holding far steadier. For breakdowns by age, qualification level and state, see the full analysis.
Free TAFE is here to stay
Free TAFE no longer has an end date. The Department of Employment and Workplace Relations confirms the Government has committed more than $1.6 billion to 2034-35 to fund at least 100,000 Free TAFE and VET places a year from 2027, backed by the Free TAFE Act 2025.
Places will be prioritised for people who typically face barriers to study, in high-demand fields of national and state priority.
The real change here is certainty. Free TAFE is moving from a series of funding agreements to a permanent part of the VET system. That means private RTOs can plan around it rather than wait to see if it continues.
Two CRICOS changes to know about
New CRICOS applications are paused for 12 months
From 19 May 2026 until 19 May 2027, providers can’t apply to ASQA for initial CRICOS registration or to add new courses to an existing registration. The Department of Education fact sheet covers the full scope.
The pause responds to integrity concerns, including low-quality or non-genuine providers entering the market and growth concentrated in certain course areas. Government schools, state or territory-owned VET providers and Table A providers are exempt.
Just as important is what the pause doesn’t touch:
– Delivery mode changes, duration changes, renewals and administrative amendments to existing CRICOS registrations can all still go ahead.
– Domestic RTO registration and domestic scope applications aren’t affected at all.
One course is closed to new international students
The Assistant Minister for International Education has named the BSB80120 Graduate Diploma of Management (Learning) for automatic suspension and cancellation under the ESOS Act. It’s part of broader action to protect the integrity of Australia’s student visa program.
ASQA confirms that from 5 October 2026, providers can’t do any of the following for this course:
– Issue new Confirmations of Enrolment
– Enrol new overseas students
– Start overseas students who haven’t yet commenced
Students already studying can finish, and domestic delivery carries on as normal.
The measure applies to this specific course only, not to graduate diplomas in general. But it’s the first use of the government’s new power to suspend or cancel specific courses for overseas students. The power exists, and it’s now been used.
Key dates at a glance
- 1 July 2025: 2025 Standards for RTOs took effect
- 19 May 2026: 12-month pause on new CRICOS applications commenced
- 5 October 2026: GDML closed to new international students
- 1 January 2027: ongoing Free TAFE places begin under the Free TAFE Act
- 19 May 2027: CRICOS application pause scheduled to end
What this means for private RTOs
Government-funded activity is contracting, Free TAFE is permanent, and international delivery is under closer regulatory scrutiny. Domestic fee-for-service remains the most stable part of the market.
With that in mind, here are three questions worth asking now:
How exposed is your enrolment mix? If a large share of your enrolments depends on government-funded places, the NCVER 2025 data is a prompt to look at how many of your courses rely on funded places.
Are your international plans still on track? If you were planning to register for CRICOS or add new courses before May 2027, now’s the time to revisit your timelines. If the Graduate Diploma of Management (Learning) is in your scope, check how the 5 October changes apply to your current and incoming students.
Is compliance part of everyday practice? The 2025 Standards connect requirements directly to outcomes. Providers who can show quality in how they operate day-to-day will be better placed than those relying on policy documents alone.
The next few months will bring more clarity. The Graduate Diploma of Management (Learning) ban takes effect, Free TAFE moves to a permanent footing, and the CRICOS pause approaches its end date. We’ll keep tracking each development and share what it means for providers as it happens.
Need help with your student acquisition efforts? Get in touch.
