Australian VET enrolments dropped 5.2% in 2025, down to 2,804,190. That’s the steepest annual fall in the seven-year series and even sharper than the COVID-affected drop in 2020. But the headline number hides the real story. This isn’t an even pullback. It’s a contraction concentrated in specific corners of the market, while other corners are still growing. Here are the key takeaways.
1. Government funding is driving most of the fall
Government-funded enrolments dropped 8.0% in 2025. Domestic fee-for-service activity held far closer to flat, down just 0.8%. International fee-for-service fell 5.0%. Government funding is retreating fastest, and fee-for-service, while not growing, is proving the far more stable market.
2. Growth is coming from younger students. Everyone else is pulling back.
15-to 19-year-olds were the only age group to grow in 2025, up 2.5%. 30-to 39-year-olds fell 9.9%, 40- to 49-year-olds fell 10.7%, and 50- to 59-year-olds fell 10.9%. If your enrolment strategy leans on career changers and upskillers in their 30s and 40s, that’s the exact cohort pulling back hardest.
| Age (domestic fee-for-service) | 2019 | 2025 | 2019 to 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 to 19 | 194,910 | 262,905 | +34.9% |
| 20 to 24 | 122,585 | 113,125 | -7.7% |
| 30 to 39 | 219,135 | 208,710 | -4.8% |
| 40 to 49 | 161,245 | 141,855 | -12.0% |
| 50 to 59 | 107,115 | 85,065 | -20.6% |
3. Certificate III and IV qualifications are shrinking
Certificate III fell 7.7% in 2025, and Certificate IV fell 15.4%. Zoom out to the full seven years, though, and the story splits by funding source. Across all funding, Certificate III is actually up 4.9% since 2019, a correction back toward trend. Within domestic fee-for-service specifically, it’s fallen every year since 2019 and is down 7.6% over that period: a genuine multi-year decline, not a one-year correction. Diploma and above tell the opposite story. Diploma across all funding is up, and across domestic fee-for-service is mostly flat. Advanced diploma grew 11.3%, and Graduate diploma grew 39.4%.
| All funding | 2019 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Certificate III | 948,920 | 994,985 | +4.9% |
| Certificate IV | 464,360 | 459,700 | -1.0% |
| Diploma | 344,325 | 359,605 | +4.4% |
| Domestic fee-for-service | 2019 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Certificate III | 315,715 | 291,875 | -7.6% |
| Certificate IV | 191,000 | 181,620 | -4.9% |
| Diploma | 109,450 | 110,050 | +0.5% |
4. Training packages are moving in different directions
Among domestic fee-for-service qualifications, Community Services fell 17.4%, more than every growing package combined managed to gain. Transport and Logistics fell 28.0%, and Training and Education fell 32.5%. On the other side, Financial Services grew 15.5%, Construction grew 8.5%, and Business Services grew 4.6%.
5. Victoria overtook NSW, but the more useful shift happened years ago
NSW fell 10.9% in 2025 and dropped out of the top spot nationally for the first time in the series. Victoria now leads, even though its own enrolments fell 3.6%, simply because NSW fell further. That ranking change is largely a government funding story: NSW’s fall is concentrated in publicly funded places, down close to 55,000 in a single year.
| State (all funding) | 2019 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 to 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 651,915 | 708,040 | 660,030 | 588,040 | -10.9% |
| Victoria | 602,250 | 624,895 | 647,915 | 624,595 | -3.6% |
| Queensland | 604,155 | 625,760 | 618,225 | 609,310 | -1.4% |
| Western Australia* | 229,915 | 263,165 | 282,450 | 256,850 | -9.1% |
| South Australia | 126,025 | 133,790 | 135,370 | 138,325 | +2.2% |
*Western Australian figures for 2025 have been affected by reporting changes associated with the transition to non-accredited literacy and numeracy support (‘foundation skills’) introduced in January 2025. This change impacts comparability with previous years at the overall program enrolment level, and specifically amongst short course enrolments. See table below.
| Western Australia | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| As reported | 229,915 | 232,285 | 251,365 | 249,230 | 263,165 | 282,450 | 256,850 |
| YoY | +1.0% | +8.2% | -0.8% | +5.6% | +7.3% | -9.1% | |
| Excl. gov short courses | 210,585 | 208,815 | 220,900 | 221,335 | 234,005 | 251,275 | 249,890 |
| YoY | -0.8% | +5.8% | +0.2% | +5.7% | +7.4% | -0.6% |
Looking at fee-for-service specifically, and a different, older shift shows up. Queensland has led the fee-paying market every year since 2019. NSW slipped to third back in 2021, four years ago, and its fee-paying volume is now 28% below Queensland’s. Victoria’s fee-paying enrolments have grown 15% since 2019, while NSW’s have fallen 18% over the same period.
| Funding source | 2019 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2019 to 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | 1,439,595 | 1,561,505 | 1,559,205 | 1,433,940 | -0.4% |
| Domestic fee-for-service | 974,540 | 994,520 | 976,380 | 968,285 | -0.6% |
| International fee-for-service | 270,110 | 324,730 | 381,355 | 362,210 | +34.1% |
What this means for your RTO
Certificate III or Certificate IV, and government-funded training across Community Services or Training and Education competes in the fastest-shrinking part of the market. Whereas Financial Services, Construction, or higher-level qualifications have a real tailwind.
The adult career changer market is contracting, and fee-for-service is the stable ground right now, not the growth engine. Student recruitment is also likely to pay off more in Queensland and Victoria than in NSW, where the fee-paying base has been eroding since 2021.
Ready to grow your enrolments? Get in touch with Candlefox to see how we can help you reach more of the students actively searching for their next course.
Want the full breakdown? Download Candlefox’s NCVER 2025 report for a deeper look at what’s driving the numbers.
Kristen Michaelides
Content Marketing Mananger
Kristen Michaelides is Content Marketing Manager at Candlefox, the company behind GabbyAI. She writes about AI adoption, enrolment performance, and the operational realities facing RTOs and education providers today.
