The Australian Government released its first report on AI and the labour market and it’s worth every RTO’s attention. Not because it confirms the AI job apocalypse everyone keeps predicting. It doesn’t. But because of what it reveals about where the next wave of student demand might come from.
What did the report actually find?
The short version: AI hasn’t caused widespread job losses in Australia yet. Unemployment remains low, and the labour market is holding up by historical standards.
But there are early signals worth watching. Employment in occupations considered most exposed to AI, including telemarketing, advertising and accounting roles, grew by 5.6% between November 2022 and February 2026. Less-exposed occupations grew by 9.5% over the same period. After accounting for pre-existing trends, the report estimates AI-exposed occupations now employ around 2% fewer people than expected.
The government is careful to note this isn’t proof of AI-driven job losses. Growth in these occupations was already slowing before ChatGPT arrived. Still, the direction is clear enough to take seriously.
Why are hands-on, vocational roles more resilient?
The occupations the report flags as least exposed to AI are largely trades, aged care and other vocational, hands-on roles. These are jobs built on physical skill, judgement and human connection, exactly the things AI can’t replicate.
The report also found that people in more exposed occupations are more likely to be women who hold university qualifications, while the safest roles skew vocational. That’s a meaningful data point for any RTO trying to explain the value of a practical qualification over a traditional degree.
What does this mean for course demand?
This is the part that matters most for your marketing. Two shifts are worth watching closely.
First, more people may start choosing vocational and hands-on careers specifically because they’re seen as AI-resistant. If someone is weighing up a university degree against a Certificate or Diploma, “less exposed to automation” is a genuinely compelling reason to choose the latter.
Second, some existing workers may look to reskill into AI-adjacent capabilities to stay competitive in their current careers, rather than leave their industry altogether. Either shift creates an opening for RTOs offering the right courses and the right message.
Interestingly, the report also flagged evidence from the US that some firms are replacing graduate intakes with AI. That trend hasn’t shown up in Australian data yet, but it’s a reason to keep watching how graduate hiring evolves here too.
How can RTOs use this shift?
A few practical starting points:
- Lead with security, not just skills. If you offer trades, aged care, community services or other hands-on qualifications, “future-proof your career” is a message worth testing across your enquiry pages and ads.
- Reframe AI-adjacent courses as career insurance. For students in more exposed fields like accounting or admin, courses that build AI literacy or complementary skills can be positioned as a smart hedge, not just an upskill.
Keep this benchmark in view
The government has said this report is intended as a benchmark, one it will track over time as AI’s impact on the workforce becomes clearer. For RTOs, that means today’s early signals are worth watching rather than reacting to. But the underlying story, that hands-on, human-centred qualifications are proving genuinely resilient, is one worth building into your messaging now.
Getting the right courses in front of the right students, at the moment they’re weighing up their next move, is where Candlefox comes in. Learn how Candlefox helps education providers connect with students actively searching for their next qualification.
Kristen Michaelides
Content Marketing Mananger
Kristen Michaelides is Content Marketing Manager at Candlefox, the company behind GabbyAI. She writes about AI adoption, enrolment performance, and the operational realities facing RTOs and education providers today.
